The business that looks like easy money is one of the hardest there is. What the founders who fail tend to miss.
PERSPECTIVE VII
Most new businesses do not survive.
That is the plain starting point, and it is worth saying before anything about luxury, as the people who launch luxury brands are usually the first to forget it. Roughly one in five new businesses in the United States closes within its first year. Around half are gone within five, and close to two-thirds within ten. Among the more ambitious sort, the scalable ventures built to grow fast and pull in investment, the attrition is far steeper still.
The reasons are not mysterious. When CB Insights read through hundreds of founder post-mortems, the most common cause was not a clever rival or a sudden crash. It was simpler and more uncomfortable. There was no real demand. The company made something that not enough people wanted badly enough to pay for. Running out of cash came next, although that is usually the symptom rather than the disease. Businesses rarely die in a single accident. They starve, slowly, because the venture they built never found enough people who needed it.
Then put luxury on top of that. The instinct, when people hear you work in luxury, is that the maths must be gentler. Charge more, do less, let the margins look after themselves. It is the wrong instinct. Luxury does not make things easier; it can only add complexity. You take the ordinary obstacles that every start-up faces, and on top of it, you add people who want to operate in the luxury industry, which brings a new level of complexity. So the whole thing becomes a far more daunting quest than it looked.
There are two things a luxury founder has to hold at the same time, and in my experience, most hold neither. The first is always the same. It is human biology. Luxury speaks a specific language and appeals to a specific part of the brain that the mass market does not. This has always been so, and it always will be, at least until we evolve into something structurally different, which is not a matter of years but of a very long time indeed. Our brains reached their present form essentially a long time ago. The size was already within the modern range around three hundred thousand years ago, and the shape settled into what we carry now, somewhere between a hundred thousand and thirty-five thousand years ago. The mechanism of desire is even older. In the timeline of any market, any brand, any business plan, none of it has changed at all. So the founder has to understand how the brain actually works, first of all. And I do not believe most of them do.
That equipment has a fascinating feature. As desire rises, judgment falls. The more someone wants a thing, the less coldly they weigh the purchase. This is not a flaw to be corrected – it is the system luxury operates through. The founder who misses it competes on specification and price, which is exactly the ground where desire does not operate.

The Annual Performance Metrics report, commissioned by LSI – Life Science Intelligence™ (https://www.cosmos.so/e/384273127)
The second force is harder, because it asks the founder to read the world rather than the numbers. Not to follow the trend, because following the trend is the logic of fast fashion, and that logic is not what proper luxury is, or is meant to be. The task is to read the change in society, which is a different and subtler thing. Not what a trend tells us to wear, or to use, or to do today, but the slower movement underneath it: where a society is going, and what it now wants to say about itself. Trends can be followed. Change has to be read early, before it announces itself. You cannot sell a European luxury brand in China the way you could a few years ago. The object is the same. What it means is not.
Here is the thing that the people handling beautiful brands tend not to grasp. When you handle luxury, you are handling a very precious and very delicate jewel. And you have to be careful. You cannot treat it like the little rubber ring that falls out of a packet of crisps, the kind of toy my son plays with for an afternoon and then forgets. You are dealing with something else. Something delicate. Something precious. Something that asks for a different kind of care in the way you handle it: the design, the marketing, the timing. Yet a remarkable number of brands manage the jewel as though it were the ring. They discount it, they stretch it, they put it everywhere, and then they are surprised when the magic drains out of it.
Which brings me to positioning, the part founders most want to believe is flexible. It is not. In luxury, the rules of positioning are close to absolute. Positioning is the place a brand holds in the mind of the consumer, and that place is an asset. Move it carelessly, and you do not reposition it. You break it.
Now look at the very top, where the money is endless, and the mistakes are still being made. In the automotive industry, a luxury legend has begun to explore the fully electric road: Ferrari, with its newest creation, the Ferrari Luce. Have a look at it. And then just look at the thing.
It is not really just a car. It is a signal sent from above. I am not going to reach for adjectives, because I do not want to put my judgment between you and the object. Look at it and decide for yourself what it tells you about where Ferrari is going, and the risks it is taking by going there. A Ferrari has never really been about the engine (although superb, even mythological), or the figures, or the technology. Those are the explanations people reach for afterwards. The beauty itself is something else, and it has always rested on one quiet, unspoken truth. It is not for everybody. You are not everybody. That is part of what you are buying.
Everyone is going electric, the argument runs, so Ferrari should too. But Ferrari is not everyone. The strongest brands sometimes do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. Maybe. I say maybe, because the move only works if you are Ferrari. If you are Volkswagen, go ahead, chase the crowd; it is the right thing to do, because Volkswagen is the car of the people, and that is honest work. A Ferrari that behaves like everybody else automatically stops being a Ferrari.
Here is what surprises me most, as at these levels it ought to be understood, yet it is not. What makes a product or a service truly luxurious is the aura. You stand in front of the masterpiece, and you have to wonder how it was even possible to create it, to invent it, to craft it. I could not do it myself. That is the feeling. It is the pure essence of luxury, and it transcends the technicalities, the features, and the characteristics of the product.
What is missing in the Ferrari Luce, for me, is exactly that. It is pure magic. A true luxury object keeps the buyer feeling that it is somehow beyond them, that they could not simply make it, or casually own it. The feeling clings even to the toy version, the small model on a shelf with no use at all, yet it is wanted anyway. The moment that feeling goes, the point of luxury goes with it.
This is close to what Bourdieu called distinction: the object draws a line between those who belong and those who do not. None of it is rational, and that is precisely the point. People buy luxury to feel something strong, and to feel, consciously or not, that whatever they are acquiring is an object of pure desire. It is not something useful. It is a completely different dimension, a completely different paradigm. The moment a brand starts justifying itself on usefulness and value for money, it has already left luxury behind.
Other houses felt the same pull and answered differently. Lamborghini had the same temptation to do what Ferrari is doing, and cleverly it said no, not yet, this is not us. Because there are positioning rules you have to respect, and they are rules for a reason. They are not optional.
Then think about Jaguar. Jaguar wanted to recast itself, and you can see in real time the impact of breaking those rules. The lesson is not that electric cars are right or wrong. It is that the rules of positioning do not bend because a technology happens to be trendy at the moment.

Desk accessories designed by Parasol for Hem, 2017. Photo by Julien Renault (https://www.cosmos.so/e/296240340)
There is one more issue, and it sits inside these companies. The large groups are driven by finance, not by creativity or vision. When a business is run by finance, it tends to be profitable in the immediate, which means it quietly loses in the long term. And then comes the hard part. How do you keep a sense of heritage while staying current with technology, AI, and the new virtual channels? How do you honour the older customer whilst simultaneously attracting the deciding factor in the future of luxury – the younger generations? By 2030, most of the spending will come from people who are young today. They have the highest spending power, yet are walking away from luxury, unconvinced by status and exclusivity alone. But what for? What is the goal? What do they actually want to spend the money on? Get that wrong, and no amount of financial discipline will save you.
So the people handling beautiful, prestigious brands today are handling them like any other brand. But they are not any other brand. If you want the short version of what is missing right now, it is a deep understanding of what luxury actually is.
So why do so many luxury start-ups fail? Rarely for the reason the founder gives afterwards. They fail because they bring the ordinary energy of a normal business to a game with a second, hidden set of rules, and because somewhere underneath, they believed that luxury would make the sums kinder. It does the opposite. A start-up already has a high chance of failing, and luxury does not make that easier. It makes it harder. The rules can be learned, though. Desire can be understood, society can be read, and the jewel can be handled with the care it asks for. Most of your competitors will never trouble themselves to do any of it. Which is exactly why, if you do, there is still room at the very top for you.





























